Complexity
Below is come materiel I developed on Complexity and Project Management. I thought it might be useful.
Russ
Although the Project
Management Institute’s definition of a project is generally accepted, the
definition of complexity is much less clear. PMI defines a project in terms of
its distinctive characteristics – a
project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or
service.
This definition highlights two distinctive aspects of a project: every project
is executed within a defined time frame and every project is unique.
Complexity;
When is a project complex? Not an easy question but if we look at generally
accepted complexity models we begin to see a trend that is useful for defining
complex projects. In biology the
simplest plant is composed of one cell. As the cellular structure increases in
number and number of connections to other cells increase the plant life is seen
as more complex. In the animal kingdom, the single cell ameba is the simplest
animal and life gets more complex as the number of cells combine to form
muscles and organs, leading to the brain, which may be the most complex of all
known possibilities, especially my daughter’s.
The complexity of a system is usually construed as
number of parts or activities and their degree of differentiation or the
structure of their arrangement. Thus, heterogeneous or irregularly configured
systems are complex, such as organisms, airplanes, and junkyards. Order is the
opposite of complexity. Ordered systems are homogeneous and redundant, like an
interstate tollbooth or a production line in a factory. Complex systems have
multiple interacting components whose collective behavior cannot be simply
inferred from the behavior of the components.
Complexity has morphological and functional aspects.
A junk heap (to use a favored example used by McShea and Thomas) may be
morphologically very complex (in consisting of so many highly varied and
independent parts) but is functionally quiet simple (just a glob for a
landfill). On the other hand, what is functionally simple for us might be quiet
complex to other users – in this case a seagull that must distinguish all the
little bits while searching for morsels of food.
In addition to the number of parts, the degree of
differentiation, morphological and functional aspects of complexity, the
number, type and strength of relationships between parts or activities also
influences the degree of complexity. Typically, as the number of activities
increase and the number of relationships between activities increase the
project becomes more complex.
Complexity is also context-dependent. A project is
more complex or less complex than some reference point, typically another
project. The Manhattan Project, building the first nuclear bomb, was more
complex than design and production of the F-15 Fighter. Project complexity is
therefore better evaluated on a continuous scale than on a discrete measure.
Projects are complex
adaptive systems. A complex system is a system consisting of a large number of
parts or activities that interact with each other numerous or various ways. A
complex system is adaptive if their activities adjust or react to events or the
environment. Successful adaptive systems adjust activities in a way that allows
the system or project to achieve its purpose.
The dependence of the
project on the activities, the interdependence of the activities and the
specialization of the activities underscore the relationship dependence of
complex adaptive systems and projects. The nature of complex systems can be
probed by investigating how the impacts of changes in one activity affect other
activities and the behavior of the whole. Activities must be studied and
understood as an interrelated, connected part of the whole. If you remove a
computer chip form a laptop and the computer powers down, don’t assume that the
purpose of the chip was to provide power to the computer. If you remove a
project kickoff activity and the schedule indicates a shorter project duration,
don’t assume that the project will finish earlier.
Complex adaptive systems
have three characteristics that are also reflected in complex projects:
1. Complex adaptive systems
tend to self organize. Formal organizational charts aren’t very effective.
Projects organize around the work, the phases or activities. The organization
of the project reacts to the nature of the work at any given phase.
2.
Complex
Adaptive Systems reflect evolutionary trajectories. The future can not be
predicted by knowing the current or present state. Too many possible outcomes
exist. If we ran an identical project three different times, we would deliver
three different outcomes. We try scenario planning, Monocarlo simulations etc.
to develop the most likely outcome but a change in when someone takes a
vacation or a small change in delivery of an important deliverable can change the
entire personality of a project.
3.
Complex
Adaptive Systems co-evolve with environmental agents who themselves are
reacting and changing. Projects apply technology that is evolving or
developing. Projects interact with people who grow and change. Projects deal
with companies who are seldom in a fixed state.
Projects have significantly different characteristics.
The Darnall Project Complexity Index, DPCI, is a tool to evaluate various
characteristics of a project and to develop a comprehensive understanding of
the total project.
Each of these characteristics or elements is evaluated
separately, relative to the industry standard for this type of project. A one
hundred million dollar project to develop a prototype jet fighter or to
construct a new highway maybe considered a small or medium size project in
their respective industries but a one hundred million dollar medical drug
research project may be considered very large.
The relative size of the project becomes one element in evaluating the
project’s complexity level.
Complexity, within this index, refers to the number of
cells in the project times the number of connections between cells. As
the project size increases and the duration shortens the complexity of the
project increases. The technological complexity, cultural complexity, legal
complexity and other indicators measured in the Index reflect the complexity of
the environment in which the project will be executed.
Measuring the level of project complexity is an
important first step in understanding the impact of increasing complexity.
Managing more complex projects requires a different project management approach
and a different set of management skills, tools and techniques than managing
less complex projects.
The various complexity indicators can range from very
low to very high within the indicator and when combined with other indicators
can the increase the total impact on the project’s complexity. In addition to
knowing the total project complexity rating, the implications of the
interaction of the various indicators is better understood.
Developing relevant recommendations that will increase
the potential for project success is a key next step for the DPCI.
Understanding the level of project complexity and the implications of the
interactions of the various indicators will allow experienced project
management professionals to better customize the project execution plan. This
information also allows project management to develop and allocate resources
early in the project, in areas where the DPCI indicates potential problems.
Understanding the potential problem areas also allows the project management
team to better develop and allocate contingency in the project budget and
schedule.
McShea,
1992,93,94 and Thomas 1993
Full House, The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin,
Stephen Jay Gould, 1996, Three Rivers Press, 201 East 50th Street,
NY, NY 10022
